Generating Risk Contingencies with (Statistical) Confidence

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Event Date
Start At : Tuesday, July 6, 2010 - 11:30am
End At : Tuesday, July 6, 2010 - 1:00pm

Generating Risk Contingencies with (Statistical) Confidence


Denis F. Cioffi, Ph.D.
Associate Professor, Decision Sciences Department
The George Washington University


Free Program - No Cost to Attend

Location and Date

Tuesday, July 6, 2010

11:30 am: Networking
12:00 pm – 1:00 pm: Program

3150 Fairview ParkDrive South
Falls Church, VA 22042

Costs and Attendance Requirements

There is no charge for attending this event, but preregistration is required.

The Noblis cafeteria, on the same floor, will be open andavailable for you to purchase lunch and bring into the auditorium.

To expedite entry into the Noblis facility, please preregister or contact Mary Beth Howe with your intent to attend. Also contact Mary Beth with any other questions regarding this event.

Note forNon-US Citizens:

Please note that due tofacility requirements, the Fairview Park Luncheon coordinators must complete some advance preparations for non-US citizens to attend these luncheons.

Non-US citizens are welcometo attend, but must request an escort on the registration form.

About the Program

Generating Risk Contingencies with (Statistical) Confidence

The textbook authors Meredith and Mantel (Project Management: A Managerial Approach, 2009) say that, in the end, all measures should be "numeric, reliable, and valid." Yet even if project managers go to the trouble to turn their descriptive nomenclature of risk probability and impact — high, medium — into numbers — 25%, 100K — the textbooks give little advice on what one can do with these numbers.

After a brief review of measurement theory terminology, the speaker will give an equally brief (and as non-technical as possible) overview of a numerical method developed by him and a colleague that enables a project manager to determine the amount of contingency funds to set aside to cover a project's risk to any desired statistical limit.

About the Speaker

Denis F. Cioffi, Ph.D., an Associate Professor in the Decision Sciences Department in the Business School at The George Washington University, earned his doctorate in astrophysics from the University of Colorado in Boulder, Colorado.  After astrophysics research at the University of California at Berkeley, the Goddard Space Flight Center, and North Carolina State University in Raleigh, his science background led directly to his project and program management experience at various federal agencies.

The transition to management comprised positions at the National Science Foundation, NASA Headquarters, and the Office of Science and Technology Policy in the Executive Office of the President.  He came to GW from the Center for Science, Trade, and Technology Policy at George Mason University. Dr. Cioffi served as Director of GW’s Project Management Program for three years (2001–2004) and currently heads the Project Management Academic Committee.  With a colleague in the Department, Dr. Cioffi received a grant to examine the possible transformation to solar power as the primary source for the US’s electricity, and a system dynamics model was developed last summer.

In addition to his regular academic duties, Dr. Cioffi chairs the University’s Research and Instructional Technology Committee. For more information (resume, publications, recent papers), visit his website at or contact him at

Past Fairview Park Programs

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Foradditional information, please contact Mary Beth Howe


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